Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. Dive in and Share your insights! Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Bidens first real State of the Union speech. Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. 01:00 PM. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. By May 21, 2021 0 . Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. PODCAST-19 brings you the latest evidence on the COVID-19 pandemic. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. 04:58 PM. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They consider how much. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. Accuracy is not guaranteed. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcasts 200 episodes FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News News 4.5 19.2K Ratings FEB 21, 2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. robert kraft granddaughter. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Feb. 21, 2023 Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine Feb. 16, 2023 Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis By Galen. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. Texas has been in a dire situation this week. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. All rights reserved. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. It's a busy week! Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. 2,. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. heritage commons university of utah. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Most recently, he ran and hosted 30 for 30 Podcasts, part of ESPN Films. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless', Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear, Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine. The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. This is the final episode. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations? 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. r/fivethirtyeight. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party. The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6.